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Contents

Preface to the fourth edition Introduction Descriptive statistics Learning outcomes Introduction Summarising data using graphical techniques Looking at cross-section data: wealth in the UK in 2005 Summarising data using numerical techniques The box and whiskers diagram Time-series data: investment expenditures 1977-2009 Graphing bivariate data: the scatter diagram Data transformations The information and data explosion Writing statistical reports Guidance to the student: how to measure your progress Chapter summary Key terms and concepts Problems Answers to Exercises Appendix 1A: S notation Problems on S notation Appendix 1B: E and V operators Appendix 1C: Using logarithms Problems on logarithms References Probability Learning outcomes Probability theory and statistical inference The definition of probability Probability theory: the building blocks Bayes' theorem Decision analysis Chapter summary Key terms and concepts Problems Answers to Exercises Probability distributions Learning outcomes Introduction Random variables The Binomial distribution The Normal distribution The distribution of the sample mean The relationship between the Binomial and Normal distributions The Poisson distribution Chapter summary Key terms and concepts Problems Answers to Exercises Estimation and confidence intervals Learning outcomes Introduction Point and interval estimation Rules and criteria for finding estimates Estimation with large samples Precisely what is a confidence interval? Estimation with small samples: the t distribution Chapter summary Key terms and concepts Problems Answers to Exercises Appendix: Derivations of sampling distributions Hypothesis testing Learning outcomes Introduction The concepts of hypothesis testing The Prob-value approach Significance, effect size and power Further hypothesis tests Hypothesis tests with small samples Are the test procedures valid? Hypothesis tests and confidence intervals Independent and dependent samples Issues with hypothesis testing Chapter summary Key terms and concepts Problems Answers to Exercises The c2 and F distributions Learning outcomes Introduction The c2 distribution The F distribution Analysis of variance Chapter summary Key terms and concepts Problems Answers to Exercises Appendix: Use of c2 and F distribution tables Correlation and regression Learning outcomes Introduction What determines the birth rate in developing countries? Correlation Regression analysis Inference in the regression model Chapter summary Key terms and concepts Problems Answers to Exercises References Multiple regression Learning outcomes Introduction Principles of multiple regression What determines imports into the UK? Finding the right model Chapter summary Key terms and concepts Problems Answers to Exercises References Data collection and sampling methods Learning outcomes Introduction Using secondary data sources Collecting primary data Random sampling Calculating the required sample size Collecting the sample Case study: the UK Living Costs and Food Survey Chapter summary Key terms and concepts Problems References Index numbers Learning outcomes Introduction A simple index number A price index with more than one commodity Using expenditures as weights Quantity and expenditure indices The Consumer Price Index Discounting and present values Inequality indices The Lorenz curve The Gini coefficient Concentration ratios Chapter summary Key terms and concepts Problems Answers to Exercises Appendix: deriving the expenditure share form of the Laspeyres price index References Seasonal adjustment of time series data Learning outcomes Introduction The components of a time series Isolating the trend Isolating seasonal factors Seasonal adjustment An alternative method for finding the trend Forecasting Further issues Chapter summary Key terms and concepts Problems Answers to Exercises List of important formulae Appendix: Tables Answers to problems Index

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